Over Under Win Totals Nfl

4/15/2022by admin

The 2020 NFL season is underway and football bettors have been zeroing in on teams’ win totals. Over – under bets are one of the more straightforward futures wagers available. Moreover, since they involve handicapping a team’s outlook for the coming season, they’re appealing even to novice bettors, considering NFL fans typically have strong opinions on each team in the league.

Caesars Nfl Over Under Win Totals
Vegas Over Under Win Totals Nfl
Over Under Win Totals Nfl 2021
Nfl Over Under Win Totals Vegas Odds

Win totals bets do have an added layer of risk attached this season due to the fact that there have been no pre-season games. With that said, there will undoubtedly be action throughout the coming months on these types of wagers. As such, let’s delve into some of the fundamentals of 2020 win totals bets, beginning with a look at the current totals at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.

ALSO READ: NFL Week 1 Lines At DraftKings Sportsbook

NFL win totals 2020

NFL Over/Under Over/Under or totals betting allows you to bet on the combined number of points scored in an NFL game. Oddsmakers will set an estimated point total for a game and you can bet on if. Using win totals set by bookmaker William Hill, we can also turn an eye toward gambling by analyzing each team's over/under betting lines. Using the win totals, William Hill gives the Atlanta.

After the 2020 NFL schedule release, we listed our thoughts and seven key matchups. Translation: it’s time to dive into the over/under win totals. Here are the best bets on the board.All odds via FOX Bet. Baltimore Ravens, 11. 11 is a lot of wins, but I’m taking the over, anyway. NFL Win Totals are one of the most popular future wagers and the odds for the upcoming 2020 regular season have been posted for all 32 teams. The 2019 NFL campaign saw 10 teams post double-digit victories and six of those teams posted 12 wins while another four had 13 victories or more.

Check back to this page for more win totals as they are released by sportsbooks.

How to bet win totals

Win totals bets fall under the category of a “futures” bet. As their name implies, futures bets are wagers placed on events that won’t be “settled” until a future date. For example, in the case of win totals bets, the wagers are based on the amount of victories a team is projected to garner in the coming regular season of that particular sport. The wagers are made available before the start of that regular season and therefore require a certain amount of research on the part of the bettor in terms of a team’s prospects before a decision is made.

In a win totals bet, the oddsmaker sets a number for the projected amount of victories a team will garner in the coming season. A bettor then decides whether they want to place their money on the team either failing to meet or exceeding that threshold. Either side of the bet will have odds assigned to it that determine the rate of payout if the wager is successful.

The odds are represented in the form of a number with a “-“ or “+” next to them. These denote the rate at which a bettor will be paid out if the wager is successful. As a rule of thumb, the number with a “-“ next to it represents the amount of money a bettor would need to risk to win $100. Conversely a number with a “+” attached represents the amount of money a bettor would win for every $100 wagered. To further illustrate, let’s use a $10 bet for an example.

Let’s suppose the Miami Dolphins are assigned a projected win total of seven victories for the 2020 season. For this first example, we’ll assume the oddsmakers have assigned either side of the bet -110 odds. That means that whether you bet on Miami falling short of or exceeding seven wins, you’ll have the same rate of payout if your bet is successful. In this case, with the bet having -110 odds all the way around, the $10 bet would pay out a profit of $9.09. The bettor would therefore receive a total of $19.09 in return (the original $10 wagered, plus the profit amount).

Utilizing the same wager, let’s say oddsmakers have instead made the odds for the Dolphins finishing over seven wins at +120 and left the under side of the wager at -110. In this case, bettors putting faith in Miami taking a sizable leap forward next season and exceeding seven wins would realize a $12 profit if their side of the bet is correct. The better would therefore receive a total of $22.00 in return (the original $10 wagered, plus the profit amount).

Where to find win totals bets at online sportsbooks

As mentioned earlier, win totals bets fall under the umbrella of futures bets. They are not difficult to locate within an online sportsbooks.

Typically, a bettor first navigates toward the offseason sport they wish to place a win totals bet for. In the case of NFL wins totals bets, the bettor would then look for a “NFL Futures” tab within the NFL section. The win totals bets are often further segregated under a “Team Futures” tab and a “Regular-season Wins” sub-section.

It’s also worth noting that in the early stages of the offseason, not every online sportsbook has win totals bets readily available. Some, such as DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook, wait until the dust settles on important events such as free agency and the draft before rolling out their projected totals. Others, such as FOX Bet, made an initial selection of projected win totals available in early February.

Strategy for betting win totals

Line shopping

As is the case with most any purchase, being a smart and patient shopper when placing a wager can pay off nicely over time. The commodity one is evaluating/looking for the best price on when betting projected win totals is the projected number of wins that is set (likely to have low-to-no variance across most sportsbooks) and its corresponding odds (more likely to have variance across sportsbooks).

As an example, say Sportsbook A sets the Miami Dolphins’ win total at 6.5 wins. The odds for under 6.5 wins is set at -110, while odds on over 6.5 wins is set at +110. Meanwhile, Sportsbook B places the odds of under 6.5 wins at -120 and odds on over at +120.

In such an instance, a bettor wishing to bet under 6.5 wins would be best served going to Sportsbook A (as -110 odds offer a more favorable payout than -120) and one wishing to bet over 6.5 wins would be best served going to Sportsbook B (since +120 odds offer a more favorable payout than +110).

Recency bias

The concept of “recency bias” can be a confounding factor in any endeavor that involves placing money on sporting events (i.e., not just sports betting, but in daily fantasy sports as well, for example). Simply put, recency bias is the concept of allowing the performances of a team/player in the recent past to affect a decision on a current wager.

This concept is straightforward to illustrate with respect to win totals bets. Say a bettor is considering placing a win totals bet on the New England Patriotsfor the 2020 season at this stage of the offseason. The total for the Patriots opened at 9.5 wins. A bettor allowing recency bias to creep in would go by the Patriots’ long stretch of dominance (17 straight seasons of double-digit wins) in placing a bet on New England exceeding that figure in the pre-free-agency-portion of the offseason.

However, since Tom Brady decided to bolt Foxboro and head to Tampa Bay and the subsequent signing of former NFL MVP Cam Newton, the Patriots’ win total has been in flux all summer.

In that example, the recency bias engendered by the Pats’ long stretch of success easily coaxed a bettor to assume that another 10-win season at minimum was about as automatic as it gets. However, in this case, not accounting for current circumstances would have cost that bettor money.

Inflated lines

The concept of “inflated lines” ties into recency bias to a large extent, as the latter often helps lead to the former. Inflated lines are the byproduct of the betting public heavily favoring one side of a bet over the other. Many times, that’s a result of the public allowing recency bias to affect their betting decisions.

To further explain, oddsmakers initially set a line at a point where they estimate they’ll be able to get close to equal action on either side of the wager. However, once the line is released, its future movement will largely be determined by how much money is coming in on each side. When betting decisions heavily influenced by recency bias are being made by a large percentage of the public, this can lead to inflated lines that can be ripe for exploitation by a smart bettor.

The aforementioned case of the Patriots’ 2020 win total could ultimately prove to be a textbook example over time. And the same could apply to a number of teams that underwhelmed last season (see examples in the first section) or for the last several seasons but are reaching a tipping point of exponential improvement due to their ability to add multiple impact players this offseason and the ongoing development of their existing pieces.

In examples such as these, “fading the public” is a strategy to consider, if the odds and research for the less popular side of the wager justify the investment.

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The 2020 NFL season is scheduled to begin on September 10th, and the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are betting favorites to win another title at Super Bowl LV in Tampa next February.

Before the season kicks off, FTW’s Steven Ruiz, Charles Curtis and Nick Schwartz made their over/under picks for every NFL team’s projected win total.

Teams are listed with their listed 2020 win total, per BetMGM, along with their under/over odds, listed in that order. For example, the Cardinals are currently listed at 6.5 (+135/-164), meaning a bettor gets +135 odds on under 6.5, and -164 odds on over 6.5.

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Arizona Cardinals: 6.5 (+135/-164)
Charles: Over
Nick: Over
Steven: Over
The defense can’t be as bad as it was a season ago and I have every reason to believe the offense will take off now that Kyler Murray has a year of experience under his belt and a new No. 1 receiver to work with in DeAndre Hopkins. – Steven Ruiz

Atlanta Falcons: 7.5 (-121/+100)
Charles: Under
Steven: Under
Nick: Under
The Falcons won 6 of their last 8 in 2019 to salvage a 7-9 season, but the NFC South is tougher this year, and the Falcons face the fifth toughest schedule in the league by record. – Nick Schwartz

Baltimore Ravens: 11.5 (-115/-105)
Steven: Over
Nick: Over
Charles: Over
Elite offense, incredible defense, good schedule. At least 12 wins should be no problem. – Charles Curtis

Buffalo Bills: 8.5 (+120/-143)
Steven: Over
Nick: Over
Charles: Over
I do think the Buffalo hype to win the AFC East is a tad too much heading into 2020, but as long as the defense clamps down again and Josh Allen doesn’t completely implode, I could see a 9-7 season in Western New York. – CC

Carolina Panthers: 5.5 (+100/-120)
Charles: Under
Steven: Under
Nick: Under
There's zero continuinty and too much for new coach Matt Rhule's staff and players to prove in a division with two potentially great teams. – NS

Chicago Bears: 8.5 (-176/+145)
Nick: Under
Charles: Under
Steven: Under
How is their win total so high?!?! Does Vegas know something we don’t? Are the Bears hiding a competent starting quarterback somewhere on the roster? The defense is not as deep as it was a year ago and the offense seems to be getting worse. This is an eight-win team at best. – SR

Cincinnati Bengals: 5.5 (+115/-139)
Steven: Under
Nick: Over
Charles: Under
I do think Joe Burrow and the offense will be good enough to win a few games, but there are too many question marks on defense to consider the over. – CC

Cleveland Browns: 8.5 (+105/-125)
Steven: Under
Nick: Under
Charles: Under
I went back and forth here, but ultimately landed on eight wins. The division is tough, and although I’m buying into Baker Mayfield getting a boost from new coach Kevin Stefanski, I think it’s another up-and-down season. – CC

Dallas Cowboys: 9.5 (+135/-164)
Steven: Over
Nick: Under
Charles: Over
I see a bargain here. The offense – now with first-round pick CeeDee Lamb – is going to be among the most balanced in the league, and the defense has a terrific front seven. At least ten wins will be more than doable. – CC

Denver Broncos: 7.5 (+115/-139)
Nick: Over
Charles: Under
Steven: Over
Even if Drew Lock stumbles in his second season, there is just too much talent on this roster for it to fail. And I have faith in Vic Fangio to build a top-10 defense with the players he has at his disposal. That should be enough to keep Denver around .500 all season. – SR

Detroit Lions: 6.5 (+115/-139)
Charles: Over
Nick: Over
Steven: Over
While I’m not jumping on the Lions’ bandwagon like a lot of NFL analysts are this offseason, this team is a lot better than what we saw last year in Detroit. They lost just about every close game they were in and Matthew Stafford missed nearly half the season. Six wins seems to be Detroit’s floor. – SR

Green Bay Packers: 9 (-139/+115)
Charles: Under
Nick: Over
Steven: Under
I like the Packers to win the division, but the smart money is on the under. The Packers were one of the worst 13-3 teams we’ve ever seen based on point differential and DVOA, so some regression is expected. And it’s not like the front office significantly upgraded the roster to prevent the team from taking its expected steps back. – SR

Houston Texans: 7.5 (-120/+100)
Steven: Over
Charles: Under
Nick: Under
Can David Johnson stay healthy and produce at a high level? Can the combined powers of Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks replace DeAndre Hopkins? I have my doubts, and since I'm expecting the Titans to still be good and the Colts to take a leap forward, 7-9 or worse for Houston feels like the safer bet. – NS

Indianapolis Colts: 8.5 (+145/-176)
Steven: Over
Charles: Over
Nick: Over
The Colts upgraded at QB with Philip Rivers, have been solid in the draft in recent years, sit in a winnable division and have very winnable games against the NFC North this year. This one's easy. – NS

Jacksonville Jaguars: 5 (-164/+135)
Steven: Under
Charles: Under
Nick: Over
The key here is that you're safe if the Jags get to five. If the line was 5.5, I'd go under, but getting plus-odds for a team that per PFF simulations should win 6.2 games is a solid bet. – NS

Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5 (+110/-130)
Nick: Over
Charles: Over
Steven: Over
Even with Patrick Mahomes hobbled for a chunk of the season, the Chiefs still managed to win 12 games in 2019. With rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the fold, the offense could be even better and the defense should only improve in Steve Spagnuolo’s second season. – KC

Las Vegas Raiders: 7.5 (-115/-105)
Nick: Under
Charles: Under
Steven: Under
The Raiders were not a very good team last year, and a lot of the reinforcements they brought in this offseason aren’t sure things. The defense still looks bad on paper and Jon Gruden has had trouble adjusting his offense in the second half of games. This is a seven-win team on paper. – SR

Los Angeles Chargers: 7.5 (+110/-134)
Charles: Under
Nick: Under
Steven: Over
The quarterback situation is concerning, but there is just too much talent on the roster for this team not to win eight games. Barring the typical Chargers luck we’ve seen take this team down in the past, of course. – SR

Los Angeles Rams: 8.5 (-125/+105)
Charles: Under
Nick: Over
Steven: Over
Everything went wrong for the Rams last year. Injuries and poor close-game luck prevented Los Angeles from making it back to the playoffs, but even with everything going wrong, the team still finished with nine wins. A reversal in fortune will allow the Rams to hit the over, even if it doesn’t lead to a playoff berth. – SR

Miami Dolphins: 6 (+125/-150)
Steven: Under
Nick: Over
Charles: Under
I think Miami will surprise some opponents this year, but they’ll fall just short of their win total at five victories. – CC

Minnesota Vikings: 8.5 (+130/-159)
Nick: Under
Charles: Over
Steven: Under
The Vikings intentionally took a step back this offseason in order to get their cap situation in order. As a result, Minnesota lost a lot of veteran talent and the young guys — the Vikings made 15 picks in the draft! — will need some time to get up to speed. While the offseason approach may benefit the team down the line, it could be a frustrating 2020 season in Minnesota. – SR

New England Patriots: 9.5 (-125/+105)
Nick: Under
Steven: Over
Charles: Over
If there’s anything we’ve learned from betting against Bill Belichick over the years, it’s this: don’t bet against Bill Belichick. – CC

New Orleans Saints: 10.5 (-120/+100)
Steven: Over
Charles: Over
Nick: Over
There's no reason the Saints shouldn't win 11 or 12 games this year. Even if Drew Brees misses time, Jameis Winston is a capable replacement. Easy over at +100. – NS

New York Giants: 6.5 (-164/+135)
Steven: Under
Nick: Over
Charles: Under
Daniel Jones should take a step forward, but the defense isn’t good and they’ll play the Cowboys and Eagles twice each. I’m shocked it’s not lower than 6.5. – CC

New York Jets: 6.5 (-115/-106)
Steven: Under
Nick: Under
Charles: Under
Yes, last year’s second-half schedule was swiss-cheesy easy. Sure, maybe Sam Darnold and Co. take another step forward. But, this year’s schedule is much, much harder. Second-hardest, to be exact. So I’ll take the under. – CC

Philadelphia Eagles: 9.5 (-125/+105)
Steven: Under
Nick: Over
Charles: Over
This was the toughest of the bunch. Can the Eagles get to 10 wins with uncertainty in their receiving corps? Is Darius Slay going to solve what ailed their secondary? I went with the over … but I’m not that certain of it, given that I’m also assuming the Cowboys win the division. – CC

Pittsburgh Steelers: 9 (-105/-115)
Steven: Over
Nick: Over
Charles: Over
Getting Ben Roethlisberger back is so huge and we know from last season just how good this defense can be at every position. I love the over here as the Steelers snag a Wild Card spot. – CC

San Francisco 49ers: 10.5 (-105/-115)
Nick: Over
Charles: Over
Steven: Over
There are legitimate questions about the receiving corps, but the 49ers are loaded everywhere else on the roster. And they have Kyle Shanahan around to mitigate the weakness at receiver. San Francisco isn’t going anywhere. – SR

Seattle Seahawks: 9.5 (-115/-105)
Win

Nick: Under

Caesars Nfl Over Under Win Totals

Charles: Over
Steven: Under
The Seahawks’ 2019 point differential and record in close games suggests they were lucky to make the playoffs and win 11 games. As good as Russell Wilson is, he’s not going to be able to fight off that regression on his own. Even if the team as a whole improves, getting to 10 wins in a difficult division will be hard. – SR

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10 (-125/+105)
Steven: Over
Charles: Under
Over

Nick: Under
The receiving corps is undoubtedly great, but I'm just not willing to bet on 43-year-old Tom Brady, especially when I'm safe if they hit 10-6. – NS

Tennessee Titans: 8.5 (+115/-139)
Steven: Under
Charles: Under
Nick: Over
Tennessee hasn't managed a record other than 9-7 since 2015, and with a fairly easy schedule to deal with, I'm predicting another 9-7 campaign in 2020. – NS

Washington: 5 (+105/-125)
Steven: Over
Nick: Under
Charles: Over

Vegas Over Under Win Totals Nfl

Over Under Win Totals Nfl 2021

There are a lot of reasons to take the under, but I’ve been wrong before about a team that I think could be one of the NFL’s worst (remember that time I thought the Jets wouldn’t win a game that one year? I do!). So I’ll say they find a way to get to six wins. – CC

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